Retail inflation declined to a three-month low of 5.02 in September, mainly due to easing food prices, according to the government data released on Thursday. The inflation has come back to the Reserve Bank's comfort level of below 6 per cent after a gap of two months. The inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) was 6.83 per cent in August and 7.41 per cent in September 2022.
The December meeting of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will start on Wednesday even as there is no clarity on whether Governor Shaktikanta Das, the chair of the panel, will continue in office after his term ends next week. The outcome of the meeting will be announced on Friday by Das at 10 in the morning.
While liquidity in the banking system has turned surplus in the last few weeks, it could go back to deficit again, mainly due to corporate advance tax outflows. The net liquidity surplus of the banking system rose to touch Rs 1 trillion on Tuesday on the back of government spending, according to the data released by the Reserve Bank of India.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) State of the Economy report for October acknowledged a slowdown in some high-frequency indicators but expressed confidence in a recovery, aided by consumption demand during the festival season. "In India, aggregate demand is poised to shrug off the temporary slowdown in momentum in the second quarter of 2024-25 as festival demand picks up pace and consumer confidence improves," said the report released on Monday.
Investor wealth eroded by Rs 4.46 lakh crore in a single day on Friday with the benchmark BSE Sensex tanking more than 1 per cent in line with global stocks rout. The 30-share BSE Sensex plunged 885.60 points or 1.08 per cent to close at 80,981.95 with 25 of its components declining and five ending with gains. During the day, it nosedived 998.64 points or 1.21 per cent to hit an intra-day low of 80,868.91.
India needs to be technologically and militarily prepared to defend itself from both Pakistan and China, alerts Ramesh Menon.
It is time for India to raise its voice not just through military prowess, but through professionalism, principled voting and partnerships, asserts Deepak Mishra.
Puri said Pakistan was a country in "terminal decline" periodically using terrorism as an instrument of state policy.
The US Fed rate cut of 50 basis points is unlikely to have any significant impact on foreign inflows into India, Economic Affairs Secretary Ajay Seth said on Thursday. He said the US Federal Reserve has done what it assesses is good for the largest economy in the world, but the RBI will take a decision on interest rate cut keeping the Indian economy in mind. "It is a positive for the global economy, including the Indian economy. "It is a 50 basis points cut from a high level.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday announced the increase of the UPI Lite wallet limit to Rs 5,000 and per-transaction limit to Rs 1,000, in order to encourage wider adoption of the popular instant payment system through mobile phones. A limit of Rs 500 per transaction and an overall limit of Rs 2,000 per UPI Lite wallet, is presently applicable, with the facility of auto-replenishment. Unveiling the October bi-monthly monetary policy, Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das also said the per-transaction limit in UPI123Pay will be enhanced to Rs 10,000 from the current Rs 5,000.
Moody's Ratings on Wednesday said India's economic growth will exceed 6.5 per cent in the next fiscal, up from 6.3 per cent this year, on higher government capex and consumption boost from tax cuts and interest rate reduction. Projecting a stable outlook for the banking sector, Moody's said although the operating environment of Indian banks will remain favourable in the next fiscal, their asset quality will deteriorate moderately after substantial improvements in recent years, with some stress in unsecured retail loans, microfinance loans and small business loans.
TCS was the biggest loser in the Sensex pack, sliding 3.17 per cent, followed by HCL Tech, Yes Bank, IndusInd Bank, RIL, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Tata Steel, Kotak Bank and L&T, down up to 2.34 per cent.
All policy planners want low interest rate, says Jaitley
RBI said monetary management in the current fiscal will be dominated by the challenge of moderating inflation and anchoring inflation expectations, while remaining supportive of growth impulses.
The IMF on Tuesday projected a growth rate of 6.1 per cent for India in 2023, which is a 0.2 percentage point upward revision compared with the April projection. This is reflective of the "momentum" from stronger-than-expected growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 as a result of stronger domestic investment, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said. "Growth in India is projected at 6.1 per cent in 2023, a 0.2 percentage point upward revision compared with the April projection," it said in its latest update of the World Economic Outlook.
Wholesale inflation fell to a 4-month low of 1.31 per cent in August due to a decline in prices of vegetables and fuel, even though onion and potato prices spiked, according to official data released on Tuesday. Wholesale price index-based inflation fell for the second straight month in August after it hit a high of 3.43 per cent in May. Inflation in July was 2.04 per cent. In August last year, WPI inflation was (-) 0.46 per cent.
Confronted by outrage in Greenland, the US has scaled down a proposed visit to the island.
RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao on Tuesday defended the bank's decision to keep the key policy rate unchanged saying inflation could rise to above 8 per cent in the near-term.
Institutional investments in Indian real estate have seen a strong start to 2025, with inflows reaching $ 1.3 billion in the first quarter - a 31 per cent year-on-year (YoY) increase. This growth was primarily driven by domestic investments, which accounted for 60 per cent of the total inflows during the quarter. With $ 0.8 billion inflows, domestic investments saw a 75 per cent annual rise and were largely focused on industrial & warehousing and office segments.
'Investment creates capacity and reduces inflation. Income, employment, and savings rise.'
Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday said the country's economy is an island of stability despite two Black Swan events and multiple shocks. "In an ocean of high turbulence and uncertainty, Indian economy is an island of macroeconomic and financial stability," Das told reporters during the post policy press conference. He said the financial stability, macroeconomic stability and resilience of growth is being witnessed despite two Black Swan events happening one after the other and multiple shocks.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday raised the retail inflation target for the current financial year to 5.7 per cent on the back of rising global prices amidst the ongoing geo-political tensions, even as it expected the prices of cereals and pulses to soften on prospects of good winter crop harvest. "Global food prices along with metal prices have hardened significantly. "Economy is grappling with a sharp rise in inflation... Inflation is now projected at 5.7 per cent in 2022-23 with Q1 at 6.3 per cent; Q2 at 5 per cent; Q3 at 5.4 per cent and Q4 at 5.1 per cent," RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said while unveiling the first monetary policy review for the current fiscal year.
The paper seems to be suggesting strongly that the tight target range be maintained even as the central bank is all set to miss the target range for three consecutive quarters because of the Covid crisis.
'India is an equity market with a breadth and depth of companies to invest in.'
Amid fears of a third wave of coronavirus pandemic and hardening of retail inflation, the Reserve Bank is likely to maintain status quo on interest rate and watch the developing macroeconomic situation for some more time before taking any decisive action on monetary policy. The RBI is scheduled to announce its bi-monthly monetary policy review on August 6 at the end of the three-day meeting -- August 4-6 -- of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The RBI Governor-headed six-member MPC decides on the key policy rates.
The Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), began its three-day deliberations on Wednesday amid expectations of a status quo on benchmark rate mainly on account of uncertainty over the impact of the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, the fears of firming inflation may also refrain the MPC from tinkering with the interest rate in its bi-monthly monetary policy outcome to be announced on Friday. The RBI had kept key interest rates unchanged at the last MPC meeting held in April.
RBI has held its short-term lending (repo) rates unchanged at eight per cent since April 2012.
Analysts at Barclays pitched for a 0.25 per cent cut to generate demand advising the central bank to throw caution to the wind.
This is important because he is to be seen as a sure winner before criss-crossing the state to campaign for candidates of the party or an alliance, highlights N Sathiya Moorthy.
'The real repo rate is very high in terms of core inflation.'
Stock market analysts on Tuesday termed the RBI decision to hike policy rates by 0.25 per cent as in line with expectations and said they expect another hike in March review of the monetary policy.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Friday said the central bank has developed an innovative artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) based model MuleHunter.ai to address the growing issue of mule bank accounts that are often used for committing financial fraud. Developed by the Reserve Bank Innovation Hub, the new initiative is piloted with two public sector banks.
During the fourth quarter of last fiscal, the economy had grown at a nine-year low rate of 5.3 per cent. During the entire fiscal of 2011-12, the economy grew by 6.5 per cent.
Retail inflation crossed the RBI's comfort level and rose to 5.21 per cent in December on increase in prices of food items.
The government on Monday ruled out making public the RBI report detailing the reasons why the central bank could not keep inflation within the targeted 6 per cent upper limit for the three consecutive quarters. "Yes sir, RBI has furnished a report to the central government, as mandated under Section 45ZN of the RBI Act, 1934 and Regulation 7 of RBI Monetary Policy Committee and Monetary Policy process Regulations, 2016," minister of state for finance Pankaj Chaudhary said in a written reply. The said provisions of the RBI Act, 1934, and regulations therein does not provide for making the report public, he said.
The overall inflation in March fell to 5.96 per cent, much below Reserve Bank of India estimate.
The study points out that for the determination of growth and investment at the macroeconomic level, the real interest rate is more relevant, even though the nominal interest rate is important for investment planning at the firm level.
RBI is scheduled to announce the annual credit policy on May 3.
'The central bank has highlighted that the slowdown in growth has been limited to a few sectors and overall growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year.'
